Speaking from Wood Mackenzie's Solar and Energy Storage Summit, Sylvia Leyva Martinez, Principal Analyst, North America Utility-Scale Solar, said, "Bright skies are ahead for US solar, with average annual installations surpassing 40 GWdc through 2035. In total, the US solar industry will add about 502 GWdc of capacity to the market in the next 10 years."
Leyva Martinez highlighted the steady growth trajectory for solar installations, with annual capacity additions expected to range between 41 GWdc and 50 GWdc from 2025 to 2035. However, she cautioned that policy uncertainty could significantly impact these projections.
"Our forecasts show a potential 24% upside in the high scenario and a 25% downside in the low scenario compared to our base case," Leyva Martinez explained. "The future of the Inflation Reduction Act and other policy measures will play a key role in project materialization, and many things can change during this uncertain policy environment."
The presentation also addressed the rapid growth of US solar manufacturing capacity. Leyva Martinez noted, "We've seen exponential growth in domestic manufacturing over the past three years. However, challenging trade policies may jeopardize new investments in the sector."
Specifically, US module manufacturing capacity is projected to increase from 17 GW in 2023 to potentially 144 GW by 2027, with additional growth in wafer and cell manufacturing capacities.
Leyva Martinez also highlighted several key uncertainties facing the industry:
- Meeting the exponential load growth expected in the coming years
- Potential shortage of gas turbines before 2029
- Political uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs
- The future of tax credits and other IRA provisions
"The Trump administration will need to balance its AI and data center ambitions with the energy reality," Leyva Martinez concluded. "These mixed market and policy dynamics are driving uncertainty in solar project development, and the industry will need to navigate these challenges carefully."
