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Photo 1. This aerial view of the bow of an empty cargo ship demonstrates the severity of the current supply chain distribution problem.

Caught Between Supply and Demand

Aug. 10, 2022
There’s no shortage of work, but there is a shortage of just about everything required to do that work.

At the end of 2021, there were 28% more single-family homes under construction than one year earlier, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Add in equally strong starts in multifamily housing, along with a robust commercial sector, and that means there’s no shortage of work for every type of electrical contractor.

The dark lining to that silver cloud is supply chain woes (Photo 1). Like the chronic shortage of journeymen, electricians, electrical foremen, and other positions, the acute shortage of circuit breakers, receptacle outlets, conduit, and other products make it difficult for contractors to meet that demand. This article examines why so many products can’t be found for love nor money — and why that situation is unlikely to improve anytime soon.

Just ask Frank Massiglia, vice president of purchasing at Electrical Dynamics in North Reading, Mass.

“It’s the unknown that is killing us,” he says. “Factories have no clue as to what’s shipping and when. The everyday stuff like black plastic boxes, plugs, and switches we’re being allocated. We can’t get panel covers. We can’t get transfer switches. I don’t see any end in sight.”

More money also doesn’t necessarily make a difference.

“We had a customer who wanted to give us $150,000 up front to get his generator in a hurry,” Massiglia says. “No, 40 weeks.”

What once looked like a temporary problem brought on by the pandemic has officially crossed into chronic territory. That makes it akin to high blood pressure, arthritis, or diabetes: an aggravating, debilitating condition that must be managed indefinitely while holding out hope for a cure somewhere down the road.

“The supply chain issues have been evolving, meaning that what was a problem four to six months ago is now caught up, and we are seeing different products become an issue,” says Cory Borchardt, senior vice president of operations at Fisk Electric in Houston. “Unistrut and fittings were a problem earlier, and are now caught up. Fiberglass conduit and fiber optic cable are now in short supply.

“One segment that has been consistently impacted is the electronic components and circuit boards. Everything from fire alarms to switchgear to LED lighting and GFCI/AFCI outlets have been impacted with price and lead time issues.”

Those fluctuations make it difficult to price jobs — and turn a profit (Photo 2).

“We’ve gone back to a few general contractors looking for relief, especially on copper wire,” Massiglia says. “These are jobs that we wrote in 2020 and 2019. So any job we recorded in 2019 and early 2020, we’re paying the price now that things have tripled and quadrupled in some instances.

“It’s day to day. You get quotes from people: ‘These quotes are good for 24 hours.’ I’ve been doing this for 40 years, and I’ve never seen it this bad.”

Weak links in the supply chain

How did things get so bad? There are multiple reasons, starting with COVID, which came in and crimped production of everything from raw materials to finished products at a time when they were already in high demand. So when mines and factories reopened, they faced an even bigger backlog. This problem persists two years later, as FMI senior economist Brian Strawberry noted in a recent survey.

“One of the respondents is involved in the electrical vehicle and battery plant market,” says Strawberry, who leads FMI’s research in construction material pricing and consumption trends. “He said that their backlog is three times larger than he’s ever seen it.”

Electric vehicles (EVs) also are an example of how a fast-growing sector can be a double-edged sword (Photo 3): On the plus side, EVs mean more business for contractors that install chargers and other infrastructure. But EVs also mean more competition for raw materials.

“The demand for electronics and copper for electrical vehicles is going to have a long-term impact on the supply chain,” says Fisk’s Borchardt.

COVID also continues to rear its ugly head in the worst possible places from a supply chain perspective. Take Baise, a Chinese city that produces a big chunk of the world’s aluminum. When it went into a COVID lockdown in February, global aluminum prices spiked to a 14-year high (Photo 4). And similar shortages plague other metals.

“That’s the problem with plugs and switches: They can’t get brass,” says Electrical Dynamics’ Massiglia. “And we’re talking major manufacturers: ABB, Siemens, Cutler-Hammer.”

The war in Ukraine is just the latest disruptor. It’s part of the reason why fuel prices keep setting new records, leading to shipping surcharges that get passed down the line. Even if peace were struck tomorrow, prices would remain high because of other factors, such as declining refining capacity in the United States.

Another example is tungsten, found in a wide variety of products used by the electrical industry, including semiconductors, halogen lamp filaments, and cutting tools such as drill bits.

“When you get into precision [cutting] work, you can’t substitute it,” says Lewis Black, CEO of Almonty Industries, an international company that specializes in mining tungsten.

And in the case of semiconductors, the tungsten shortage’s impact goes beyond just electrical products such as industrial breakers and LED lighting. For example, the semiconductor shortage is also hammering automakers, making it tough for contractors to find enough new work trucks and vans.

Why is tungsten in such short supply? As with the rest of the supply chain, there are multiple factors, such as older mines whose yields are diminishing due to age, stringent new environmental regulations in China, and geopolitical tensions.

“You’ve seen energy supply issues, especially in China’s ongoing argument with Australia, who’s their largest provider of coal,” Black says. “When you have no power, and mines shut down, it takes some time to reopen. But more importantly, you need energy just to keep the water out to preserve the mine. You can’t have extended periods without energy.”

Politics in play

Wars and disputes aren’t the only political factors affecting the supply chain. In addition to the already overwhelming marketplace-driven demand, there’s also the $1.2-trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA).

“Critical labor and material shortages, along with delivery (trucking) resources, may impact speed of equipment availability for the infrastructure envisioned by the IIJA and the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), as well,” says Marty Travers, executive director at Overland Park, Kan.-based Black & Veatch.

Fisk is hearing about the transportation aspect from some of its suppliers.

“We are being told the problem is mostly related to transportation and raw materials and less about COVID shutdowns at this point,” Borchardt says. “That was not the case in spring/summer 2021. Transportation costs are impacting pricing dramatically.”

In a March EC&M article, electrical contractors and officials from organizations such as the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) said they expect the bulk of IIJA-funded projects to begin next year. So even if manufacturers and their suppliers miraculously cleared their backlogs in the next six months, they’d face a crush of new IIJA-related orders.

“I think a small portion of it [will be] in 2022, but I think it’s going to have a larger impact over the following years — 2023, 2024, 2025 — especially with the magnitude and the size of the projects,” Russ Lancey, president and CEO of Ozone Park, N.Y.-based Five Star Electric, told EC&M in a previous article on infrastructure revitalization.

The IIJA also has “Buy America” provisions, which create additional supply chain limitations because many projects need products that currently aren’t manufactured in the United States. On the plus side, there are signs that the federal government recognizes this challenge. For example, in May, the Department of Transportation issued a temporary waiver for construction materials — albeit only through November 10, 2022, rather than the 12 to 24 months advocated by groups such as the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials.

Shortages also threaten adjunct markets such as broadband.

“You’re looking at very long lead times on fiber, in particular,” says Steve Truebner, a Black & Veatch director who oversees broadband projects. “Once you have a project ready and the community is excited about improved connectivity, nothing slows the momentum of the effort like an added 10-month delay. Some public entities are taking an alternative route by allocating a portion of grant dollars to place advanced orders of the fiber that they know will be needed, in lieu of direct financial grants. It’s an innovative model — and requires the right level of planning to match up with all of the other network components that are associated.”

Could the feds do more than issue waivers? Should they, for that matter? Some say it’s best to let the marketplace work things out.

“Unfortunately, there’s nothing anybody can do,” says Almonty’s Black. “The worst thing that can actually happen is if governments try to fix it. That would be an unmitigated disaster because it’s not a domestic issue. It’s a global issue. Politicians generally aren’t really the best to fix problems, especially complex ones that they have no real understanding of. So, it’s better if they just take a back seat and let the markets find the balance — because the markets will find balance. It’ll just take time.”

Coping strategies

To keep projects on track, some contractors are turning to refurbished/reconditioned equipment. As Joseph Martin, manager of procurement at Pittsburgh-based Sargent Electric told EC&M more than a year ago in a related article: “Plants are shut down. Things are backordered. We’ve gone to our customers and said: ‘Here’s an option. We can get this completed in the five weeks you want, or it’s going to take us 12 just to get the materials.’”

Other contractors say that refurbs often aren’t an option.

“At Fisk Electric, we have been doing a lot of substitutions and alternate products to cut down on lead times,” Borchardt says. “Having an open dialogue with the owner and engineering team early has helped us minimize the impacts. We have not been able to utilize reconditioned or used equipment on any of our projects. When a substitution is not possible or approved by the owner/engineer, we are finding ways to continue the project with temporary items and trying to minimize rework when permanent materials do come available.”

In some cases, refurb equipment isn’t an option because it’s not available, either.

“You can’t get [new] transfer switches,” says Electrical Dynamics’ Massiglia. “I reached out to a lot of used people on the transfer switch side. I had no luck with anything. I hate to use the term ‘new normal,’ but I think we’re seeing it.”

Tim Kridel is an independent analyst and freelance writer. He can be reached at [email protected].

About the Author

Tim Kridel | Freelance Writer

Kridel is an independent analyst and freelance writer with experience in covering technology, telecommunications, and more. He can be reached at [email protected].

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In the typical facility, the plant manager has X amount of discretionary spending power that can be directed toward a single purchase. At each level of management down, discretionary spending is stepped down into smaller amounts. Anything beyond a given manager’s limit must be appealed to the next level up. For example, the Plant Engineer can’t quite swing a purchase of $5200 but the Plant Manager can approve it. This informal arrangement reduces corporate overhead and improves operational efficiency. It does not address whether the spending decisions would make financial sense to the Chief Financial Officer, but the cap at each level keeps any mistakes to a reasonably acceptable loss or misallocation of resources. Beyond the Plant Manager’s limit, there is usually a formal process for getting spending approval. It typically involves filling out a Capital Request (or similarly named form). In well-run companies, the form is very structured. It mostly wants some basic information that will give the reviewer(s) the ability to justify not just the purchase but also the cost of acquiring the capital to do so. Because the funds will typically be borrowed by the corporation, the cost of capital must be balanced against the return on investment. There will be at least one person crunching the numbers to make what is called “the business case” for the proposed spending. Making the business case is something you should do, in some way or another, when considering spending within your approved limits. If the spending is above your approved limits, then the manager above you will need a bit beefier of a business case. The business case must take into account the value obtained versus the money spent. Consider the purchase of a thermographic camera. If you intend to purchase a mid-range camera but nobody at your facility is trained and certified in its use, the purchase is probably a waste of money. You’d be better off getting an entry-level camera and then arranging for a path toward certification if you intend to have that ability in-house and it makes operational and financial sense to do so. And generally, it makes sense to have a person or two with Level I certification so they really understand how to get the most out of a camera system that’s beyond the basic level. On the other hand, if you were a manager at an electrical testing firm with several Level III Thermographers you would be wasting your thermographers if you decided to “save money” by equipping them with only basic or even intermediate camera systems. Your firm needs to be able to troubleshoot problems when that important client calls in a panic. Your thermographers need the tools to do that job, and “cost-saving” on camera systems won’t cut it. Presumably, your clients are smart enough to already have basic camera systems; they just don’t have the expertise to use advanced systems. Sometimes a different logic applies to other types of test equipment. In the typical plant, maintenance electricians need sophisticated DMMs. If they lack the training to use the features that are needed for most effectively keeping equipment running, simply choosing a less capable DMM they already know how to use is not the answer. They need the appropriate DMM along with the training on how to use those features correctly. So far, we haven’t looked at the need to crunch any numbers to make the business case. What we have done is think about the match between the purchase, the problem that needs to be solved, and the ability of the user to solve the problem using that purchase. This sounds like a common sense approach that everyone would naturally take, but people often lose sight of the reason for the purchase in the first place. The tendency is to either go all out on something they can’t use or don’t need, or to “save money” by shortchanging the end users with something that doesn’t allow them to do what they need to do. What about those numbers? When you do a purchase request, a bean counter is going to try to determine the cash flows involved (typically in monthly periods). If you write something like, “The payback period is three years,” they don’t find that helpful. Lenders care that a loan can be serviced, and cash flow is the critical factor in calculating whether it can. Thus, beancounters don’t use payback to determine whether they can afford to borrow. They use the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) or Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR). Formulas for both IRR and MIRR have been in spreadsheet programs for over two decades, but before that they were determined using a Business Math Calculator (about $150 in 1990). And before that, they were laboriously calculated by hand. The cash flows that are charted will be either additional revenue generated or losses prevented. To help the person who figuratively wears the green eye shade, tie the use of the test equipment to a revenue stream. A major appliance plant in Tennessee has several production lines that collectively produce $1,560,000 per hour of revenue. Thus each minute of unplanned downtime is quite costly. If the plant electrical engineer there wanted to upgrade test equipment in a way that exceeds the Plant Manager’s spending authority, he needs to help the green eye shade guy do the math. He can cite short case histories from the past two years and briefly explain how having X capability (present in the new equipment, absent in the existing equipment) would have saved Y minutes of downtime (which the green eye shade guy will calculate out in terms of revenue and cash flow). The green eye shade guy also needs to know whether each case history is a one-off that will never recur or if it’s representative of what to expect in the future. You can settle this question with a brief explanation. For example, “The responding technician did not have a [name of test equipment]. Consequently, he had to arrive at the same conclusion by other means to the tune of 24 minutes of downtime he would not have incurred if he’d had a [name of test equipment]. This problem occurred once on Line 2 and twice on Line 4.” Now the green eye shade guy can simply add up the downtime, monetize it, and create the cash flow analysis. And it’s really good for something like a power monitor. For example, “In this particular case the plant did not have a monitoring system capable of detecting short-term bursts of power, which we call transient spikes, and alerting us. Transients happen with no notice, and usually without being detected. The motor shop forensic report shows the main motor failed due to winding insulation failure caused by transients. With a power monitor detecting and reporting those transients, we would have been able to intervene before outright failure, on a scheduled basis. That would have reduced downtime by 57 minutes twice last year alone.” Making the business case for your smaller purchases means simply thinking about what you are trying to accomplish and then making sure you are spending the funds correctly to achieve that goal. But as you go up the food chain, you need to make the picture more clear. And when you appeal to corporate for approval, you need to provide reasonably accurate downtime savings numbers that can be converted by them to revenue loss prevention in specific dollar amounts.
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