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The State of Material Shortages and the Electrical Industry

Jan. 4, 2021
Contractors brace for materials supply fluctuations, price volatility in 2021

Economic disruptions often carry consequences for availability and prices of raw materials, and that looks to be the case in the construction sector as a year like no other winds down.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce Q4 2020 Commercial Construction Index (CCI) shows contractor concern about building product and material shortages spiking in the fourth quarter. The share of contractors polled saying they are facing shortages of at least one material stands at 71%, up from 54% in Q3. And more say they’re worried about the consequences of shortages; 74% say they’ll have a moderate to high impact on their business, up from 63% in Q3 and two points higher than a year ago.

This year’s index has surely been colored by the pandemic, which throttled a lot of construction activity initially and continued to breed uncertainty as it surged and receded through the year. Predictably, that has produced ripple effects on building material supply chains that are seemingly still coursing through the system. Many contractors say the pandemic bears a lot of the blame for challenges in securing building products and materials; 41% says that’s been a severe byproduct.

Wood/lumber has been the most volatile material thanks to a housing construction boom, and it tops the CCI list with most mentions for short supply at 31%. But materials used by electrical contractors ranked right below it – 11% said electrical products other than copper wire were in short supply and 10% mentioned lighting products.

Contractors might have cause for worry about materials pricing heading into 2021. Gordian, which recently released its RSMeans 2021 construction costs database, says 90% of material, equipment and labor costs changed during the year, with 57% of construction materials increasing in price. The database includes a short video presentation highlighting some of the areas of cost spikes. Some examples: construction-grade lumber is up 56%; copper, 26%; copper cable and conductors, 20%; EMT conduit, 2.3%; panelboards, 1%. Electrical Marketing’s Electrical Price Index for November shows aggregate prices on about 30 electrical products up about 2% in 2020.

“Our electrical engineering expert says the major problem this year has been not shortages, but instead, price changes,” says Bob Mewis, principal engineer with Gordian.

Gordian calls the fluctuation in construction costs in 2020 “unusual,” and says, “it’s clear construction will cost more in 2021.”

Another view comes from Associated Builders and Contractors. Its most recent data from November show construction input costs plummeted from January through April, quickly rebounded through late August before flattening  but ended November just .9% higher than a year earlier (see Chart below). But chief economist Anirban Basu cautions that an end to the pandemic could set the stage for a cost surge as building activity resumes en masse. There’s a possibility of “rapidly rising input prices at some point next year.”

But the pandemic may leave a lasting impact on construction costs beyond materials. New job-site protocols for keeping viruses at bay are sure to add to construction costs, enough so that the RSMeans 2021 cost database incorporates specific related line-item costs and modifiers. They’re significant enough, says chief product officer Noam Reininger, that “anyone estimating the cost of construction work in 2021 is affected by significant cost changes.”

Zind is a freelance writer based in Lees Summit, Mo. He can be reached at [email protected].

About the Author

Tom Zind | Freelance Writer

Zind is a freelance writer based in Lee’s Summit, Mo. He can be reached at [email protected].

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In the typical facility, the plant manager has X amount of discretionary spending power that can be directed toward a single purchase. At each level of management down, discretionary spending is stepped down into smaller amounts. Anything beyond a given manager’s limit must be appealed to the next level up. For example, the Plant Engineer can’t quite swing a purchase of $5200 but the Plant Manager can approve it. This informal arrangement reduces corporate overhead and improves operational efficiency. It does not address whether the spending decisions would make financial sense to the Chief Financial Officer, but the cap at each level keeps any mistakes to a reasonably acceptable loss or misallocation of resources. Beyond the Plant Manager’s limit, there is usually a formal process for getting spending approval. It typically involves filling out a Capital Request (or similarly named form). In well-run companies, the form is very structured. It mostly wants some basic information that will give the reviewer(s) the ability to justify not just the purchase but also the cost of acquiring the capital to do so. Because the funds will typically be borrowed by the corporation, the cost of capital must be balanced against the return on investment. There will be at least one person crunching the numbers to make what is called “the business case” for the proposed spending. Making the business case is something you should do, in some way or another, when considering spending within your approved limits. If the spending is above your approved limits, then the manager above you will need a bit beefier of a business case. The business case must take into account the value obtained versus the money spent. Consider the purchase of a thermographic camera. If you intend to purchase a mid-range camera but nobody at your facility is trained and certified in its use, the purchase is probably a waste of money. You’d be better off getting an entry-level camera and then arranging for a path toward certification if you intend to have that ability in-house and it makes operational and financial sense to do so. And generally, it makes sense to have a person or two with Level I certification so they really understand how to get the most out of a camera system that’s beyond the basic level. On the other hand, if you were a manager at an electrical testing firm with several Level III Thermographers you would be wasting your thermographers if you decided to “save money” by equipping them with only basic or even intermediate camera systems. Your firm needs to be able to troubleshoot problems when that important client calls in a panic. Your thermographers need the tools to do that job, and “cost-saving” on camera systems won’t cut it. Presumably, your clients are smart enough to already have basic camera systems; they just don’t have the expertise to use advanced systems. Sometimes a different logic applies to other types of test equipment. In the typical plant, maintenance electricians need sophisticated DMMs. If they lack the training to use the features that are needed for most effectively keeping equipment running, simply choosing a less capable DMM they already know how to use is not the answer. They need the appropriate DMM along with the training on how to use those features correctly. So far, we haven’t looked at the need to crunch any numbers to make the business case. What we have done is think about the match between the purchase, the problem that needs to be solved, and the ability of the user to solve the problem using that purchase. This sounds like a common sense approach that everyone would naturally take, but people often lose sight of the reason for the purchase in the first place. The tendency is to either go all out on something they can’t use or don’t need, or to “save money” by shortchanging the end users with something that doesn’t allow them to do what they need to do. What about those numbers? When you do a purchase request, a bean counter is going to try to determine the cash flows involved (typically in monthly periods). If you write something like, “The payback period is three years,” they don’t find that helpful. Lenders care that a loan can be serviced, and cash flow is the critical factor in calculating whether it can. Thus, beancounters don’t use payback to determine whether they can afford to borrow. They use the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) or Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR). Formulas for both IRR and MIRR have been in spreadsheet programs for over two decades, but before that they were determined using a Business Math Calculator (about $150 in 1990). And before that, they were laboriously calculated by hand. The cash flows that are charted will be either additional revenue generated or losses prevented. To help the person who figuratively wears the green eye shade, tie the use of the test equipment to a revenue stream. A major appliance plant in Tennessee has several production lines that collectively produce $1,560,000 per hour of revenue. Thus each minute of unplanned downtime is quite costly. If the plant electrical engineer there wanted to upgrade test equipment in a way that exceeds the Plant Manager’s spending authority, he needs to help the green eye shade guy do the math. He can cite short case histories from the past two years and briefly explain how having X capability (present in the new equipment, absent in the existing equipment) would have saved Y minutes of downtime (which the green eye shade guy will calculate out in terms of revenue and cash flow). The green eye shade guy also needs to know whether each case history is a one-off that will never recur or if it’s representative of what to expect in the future. You can settle this question with a brief explanation. For example, “The responding technician did not have a [name of test equipment]. Consequently, he had to arrive at the same conclusion by other means to the tune of 24 minutes of downtime he would not have incurred if he’d had a [name of test equipment]. This problem occurred once on Line 2 and twice on Line 4.” Now the green eye shade guy can simply add up the downtime, monetize it, and create the cash flow analysis. And it’s really good for something like a power monitor. For example, “In this particular case the plant did not have a monitoring system capable of detecting short-term bursts of power, which we call transient spikes, and alerting us. Transients happen with no notice, and usually without being detected. 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