When estimating the electrical growth potential for a local market area, one handy resource is the free electrical contractor employment data published at the county, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), and state geographic levels by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at www.bls.gov.
While the national construction market showed many signs of cooling off in 2019, several large counties enjoyed double-digit year-over-year (YOY) increases in electrical contractor employment.
Maricopa County, the largest county in the Phoenix metropolitan area, led all U.S. counties with 2,118 new electrical contractor employees and a 13% YOY increase, according to the 2Q 2019 employment data released in December 2019 by BLS. A big chunk of this employment growth is undoubtedly coming from the Phoenix residential market, as Maricopa County has been home to one of the most active residential housing markets in the nation over the past few years. The most recent housing data available at press time shows that homebuilders pulled 18,341 single-family building permits through November 2019 in the county — tops in the nation. Maricopa County and the rest of Phoenix’s Valley of the Sun have also seen a steady flow of commercial construction in recent years, with many projects on or near the Arizona State University campus in Tempe, Ariz., as well as large airport, data center, and hospital projects.
Rounding out the top five counties in electrical contractor employee growth were the Denver metro’s Jefferson County (up 30% YOY with 1,041 new electrical contractor employees); Loudoun County in suburban Washington, D.C. (with a 21% increase and 947 new employees); Clark County in the Las Vegas metro (12% increase and 912 new workers); and Salt Lake County in the Salt Lake City metro (14% increase and 813 new contractor employees). Employment data for the 50 largest counties when measured by electrical contractor employment is available in the Table.
Electrical contractor employment is highly concentrated at the county level. BLS employment data showed that 1,494 of the 3,007 counties in the United States had electrical contractor employees, and only 200 of those 1,494 U.S. counties account for 66% of all contractor employment. You will also find that some counties account for an overwhelming share of a city’s total electrical contractor employment. For example, 99% of the 18,128 electrical contractor employees in the Phoenix MSA are in Maricopa County, per BLS data. Electrical contractor employment is also quite concentrated in Texas. In the Dallas market area, 81% of the MSA’s 24,719 contractor employees are in just two of the metro’s 10 counties posting 2Q 2019 electrical contractor employment data — Dallas and Tarrant Counties — while in Houston, Harris County’s 16,893 contractor employees accounted for a 73.7% share of all electrical contractor employment. In fast-growing San Antonio, Bexar County and its 6,085 contractor employees represent 81% of all employment in the metro.
While it’s interesting to track the employment growth in the nation’s largest counties, you can also use BLS’ electrical contractor employment data to spot potential hot spots in more rural areas, which are most often in what the U.S. Census Bureau defines as “Micropolitan Statistical Areas” that have “at least one urban cluster of at least 10,000 but less than 50,000 population.” The YOY employment increases aren’t quite as dramatic in these rural counties, and BLS data showed that only six counties registered a 2Q 2019 YOY increase in electrical contractor employment of more than 100 employees. It’s interesting to note that at least four of the fastest-growing Micropolitan counties are in major oil-producing areas — such as Lea and Eddy County in the Permian Basin straddling the Texas-New Mexico border and Stark and Williams County in North Dakota’s Bakken area.
County-level electrical contractor employment data is subject to the cyclical nature of the construction market, and it can see some wild swings from year-to-year. But when used along with other local market metrics like construction project starts, building permits, unemployment data, and population growth, it can help you get a better sense of the market areas positioned for future growth.
