In preparation for this month’s cover story, I hopped on a plane in late October and headed to Washington, D.C. My assignment called for me to take part in the 2014 McGraw Hill Construction Outlook Conference and learn what I could about the future demands for building in our country. I’m happy to report that the general mood of the event was fairly upbeat, as presenters and attendees alike projected an air of cautious optimism with regard to the future of the construction industry.
The key takeaway from this event was the forecast presentation delivered by Robert Murray, VP Economic Affairs, McGraw Hill Construction and the data in the 2014 Dodge Construction Outlook Report. This group projects total construction starts to increase 9% next year to $555 billion. Single-family housing will continue to provide a big push, as it has this year, which will now start to drive up activity in the commercial sector and stabilize the educational building category. The emerging energy boom taking place in specific regions of the country should also pump up the manufacturing sector. One of the most interesting parts of Murray’s analysis, however, came at the end of his presentation. It focused on a review of past construction cycles and then made a correlation to a new upward cycle that began in 2011. If the construction market can somehow manage to mirror the curve from the prior cycle (1991 to 2011), we’re all going to be smiling for years to come.
This same feeling of optimism was revealed in several other reports I reviewed recently. Without exception, all of the sources we rely on to track current construction activity and predict future trends remain positive about the future of construction in this country. Many point to the shale revolution taking place as one reason for growth. These new sources of gas and oil are driving down energy rates and helping support the business case for new U.S.-based manufacturing plants. In addition, expansion of the Panama Canal is driving a flurry of port work and supporting infrastructure projects to handle new overseas product delivery channels on the East and Gulf Coasts.
So as we continue to move through this holiday season, I for one am thankful for the positive reports I’ve seen lately. This slow and steady recovery path we seem to be on will hopefully allow many of us to prosper for many years to come.
