Every December, we sift through all of the construction forecast reports and predictions we can get our hands on to give you a big picture look at what to expect next year. Taking the lead on this project is our own resident data expert Jim Lucy, editor-in-chief of EC&M’s sister publications, Electrical Wholesaling and Electrical Marketing newsletter. Not only has Jim covered the electrical industry for 40 years, but he also has written hundreds of articles on market trends as well as given presentations to C-suite executives, industry groups, and investment analysts on the state of the industry and construction forecast data. What’s in store for the electrical construction market in 2025? Based on his analysis, Jim expects the U.S. electrical construction market to see low single-digit growth, given the fact that there are still several unknowns in play.
Many construction economists were slow to offer economic forecasts for 2025 until after November 5 — waiting to see how the presidential election might influence market trends going forward. Right after the results were in, revealing that Donald Trump will be the 47th president of the United States, the EC&M editorial team put together a quick 10-question survey to gauge the electrical industry’s initial reaction and provide a “vibe check” after the vote. This quick analysis from more than 280 respondents offers a snapshot of how the electrical market is feeling in the wake of the presidential election. Scroll through the survey results at ecmweb.com/55245228 to explore potential correlations between sentiment toward the election results and anticipated changes in business behavior and market conditions. This survey also gives us a glimpse into some of the “unknowns” factors with responses to the following questions:
- What areas of business could be most affected by the election outcome?
- How will the new Administration handle key economic issues like inflation, unemployment, and business regulation?
- Will the outcome of the election put the CHIPS and Science Act or the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act in danger of being repealed, affecting projects already in the works or planned for the next few years?
- Will a Trump presidency have a significant impact on capital spending in the electrical industry? If so, how?
- Will a Trump presidency lead to favorable policies for electrical workers, such as enhanced safety regulations?
- If implemented in 2025, how will Trump’s proposed plan and intention to increase tariffs on foreign goods entering the United States affect material prices in the electrical market?
Overall, electrical professionals have much to look forward to in 2025 if demand for new construction projects and renovation work picks up as expected. According to Jim Lucy in the cover story, the big “if” is whether or not interest rates will decline enough next year to have an impact on still-pricey construction loans and mortgages for new homes. In addition to interest rates, uncertainty also exists around the extent to which the Trump Administration will affect policy change on major issues like deregulation, tariffs, labor shortages, and infrastructure investment. For example, a reduction in regulatory burdens (such as environmental, permitting, and labor rules) as well as investments in domestic manufacturing and large-scale infrastructure projects could prove to be positive for the electrical industry. However, tighter immigration policies and increased tariffs on foreign goods could lead to increased material costs and exacerbate existing worker shortages, putting an even bigger strain on an already overextended construction labor market.
As noted in our survey results, electrical professionals will definitely be waiting and watching to see how the new Administration’s policies ultimately impact the U.S. construction industry. Until we see what transpires, don’t miss this months’ cover story, outlining the 10 most important market drivers EC&M and Electrical Wholesaling magazines expect to shape the 2025 construction market.
