The U.S. Department of Energy has published the latest edition of its biannual report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, which models the adoption of LEDs in the U.S. general-lighting market, along with associated energy savings, based on the full potential DOE has determined to be technically feasible over time. The new report uses an updated 2016 U.S. lighting-market model and extends the forecast period to 2035 from the 2030 limit that was used in previous editions.

Among the findings:

• By 2035, LED lamps and luminaires are anticipated to hold the majority of lighting installations for each of the niches examined, comprising 86% of installed stock across all categories (compared to only 6% in 2015).

• Annual savings from LED lighting will be 5.1 quads in 2035, nearly equivalent to the total annual energy consumed by 45 million U.S. homes today, and representing a 75% reduction in energy consumption versus a no-LED scenario.

• Most of the 5.1 quads of projected energy savings by 2035 will be attributable to two commercial lighting applications (linear and low/high-bay), one residential application (A-type), and one that crosses ­both residential and commercial (direc­tional). Connected lighting and other control technologies will be essential in achieving these savings, accounting for almost 2.3 quads of the total.

• From 2015 to 2035, a total cumulative energy savings of 62 quads — equivalent to nearly $630 billion in avoided energy costs — is possible if the DOE SSL Program goals for LED efficacy and connected lighting are achieved.

For a closer look at the findings, download the full report