advanced search

Economic Activity Advances in Thirty States in September

Nov 29, 2011 4:10 PM

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia regional economic activity indexes advanced in 30 states in September from August, according to Bernard M. Markstein, Reed Construction Data's U.S. chief economist. On a three-month moving average basis, 33 states showed improvement. Thirteen states declined in September, with the only notable concentration being in the South Atlantic division where activity for five of the eight states declined (Delaware, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia). Also included in this division is Maryland whose index was unchanged from August. This was the only division posting a decline, falling 0.9%.

The West North Central division had the greatest monthly advance among the nine divisions with a 3.5% increase at an annual rate and was one of only two divisions (along with the West South Central) in which no state posted a decline in activity (South Dakota was flat). The division includes North Dakota, whose economic activity index increased 7.1%, the largest increase in the nation. The state has benefited from a boom in energy that has spurred job creation and an inflow of workers to a state with a relatively small population and labor force. The Mountain division had the second best monthly performance, advancing 3.0%, with only one state — New Mexico — showing reduced activity. Economic activity in New England rose 2.5% placing it third place among the divisions. It also had only one state, New Hampshire, posting a decline.

The growth rates are the state economic growth indexes calculated by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank from state employment and income data which are benchmarked to approximately track national GDP growth, said Markstein. Region and division growth rates are calculated by Reed Construction Data economics from the state indexes.

Based on a three-month moving average, Massachusetts turned in the strongest performance, advancing 5.3% at an annual rate. Other high growth states include Louisiana (4.7%), Wyoming (4.3%), and Maine (4.0%). Seventeen states had declining economic activity based on their three-month moving average. The states suffering the worst declines were Indiana (-2.1%), North Carolina (-2.4%), Pennsylvania (-3.3%), and Michigan (-4.2%) mainly due to a slowdown in manufacturing. Nevada, which continues to suffer from its damaged housing market, fell 2.0%.

U.S. economic growth has shown steady, though hardly spectacular, improvement throughout the year. The first estimate of third quarter real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was 2.5% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, the best quarterly growth rate in a year. Real GDP also slightly exceeded its previous peak in first quarter 2008. The major risk to continued advancement is developments in Europe. A mild recession in Europe will be a drag on the U.S. economy, hurting exports, which would particularly harm Midwestern manufacturing states such as Michigan and Indiana. A deeper recession in Europe could tip the U.S. back into a recession through the impact on exports and European debt held by U.S. banks.

The indexes for four states (North Dakota, Massachusetts, New York, and Texas) have exceeded their 2007-08 peak. Alaska and Minnesota are the states most likely to surpass their 2007-08 peak next. Nevada, Michigan, Idaho, Florida and Arizona are the five most depressed states with their economic activity indexes more than 12% below their most recent peak. The recovery will be long and slow for these states. Each of these states has a relatively large foreclosure problem that may still be worsening and has experienced outmigration during the deep recession and subsequent subpar recovery.

To read the full report, click here.

Want to use this article? Click here for options!

© 2012 Penton Business Media, Inc.

---

Acceptable Use Policy blog comments powered by Disqus

Browse Back Issues Select an Issue EC&M Magazine | April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 June 2010 May 2010 April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 March 2009 February 2009 January 1, 2009 December 2008 November 2008 October 1, 2008 September 2008 August 2008 July 2008 June 1, 2008 May 2008 April 2008 March 2008 February 2008 January 2008 December 2007 November 2007 October 2007 September 2007 August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 April 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 June 1, 2006 May 1, 2006 April 2006 March 1, 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 April 2005 March 2005 February 2005 January 2005 December 2004 November 2004 October 2004 September 2004 August 2004 July 2004 June 2004 May 2004 April 2004 March 2004 February 1, 2004 January 1, 2004 December 1, 2003 November 1, 2003 October 1, 2003 September 1, 2003 August 1, 2003 July 1, 2003 June 1, 2003 May 1, 2003 April 1, 2003 March 1, 2003 February 1, 2003 January 1, 2003 December 1, 2002 November 1, 2002 October 1, 2002 September 1, 2002 August 1, 2002 July 1, 2002 June 1, 2002 May 1, 2002 April 1, 2002 March 1, 2002 February 1, 2002 January 1, 2002 December 1, 2001 November 1, 2001 October 1, 2001 September 1, 2001 August 1, 2001 July 1, 2001 June 1, 2001 May 1, 2001 April 1, 2001 March 1, 2001 February 1, 2001 February 1, 1995 January 1, 2001 December 1, 2000 November 1, 2000 October 1, 2000 September 1, 2000 August 1, 2000 July 1, 2000 June 1, 2000 May 1, 2000 April 1, 2000 March 1, 2000 February 1, 2000 January 1, 2000 December 1, 1999 November 1, 1999 October 1, 1999 September 1, 1999 August 1, 1999 July 1, 1999 June 1, 1999 May 1, 1999 April 1, 1999 March 1, 1999 February 1, 1999 January 1, 1999 December 1, 1998 November 1, 1998 October 1, 1998 September 1, 1998 August 1, 1998 July 1, 1998 June 1, 1998 May 1, 1998 April 1, 1998 March 1, 1998 February 1, 1998 January 1, 1998 December 1, 1997 November 1, 1997 December 1, 1996 November 1, 1996 October 1, 1996 September 1, 1996 August 1, 1996 July 1, 1996 June 1, 1996 May 1, 1996 April 1, 1996 March 1, 1996 February 1, 1996 January 1, 1996 December 1, 1995 November 30, 1995 November 1, 1995 October 1, 1995 September 1, 1995 August 1, 1995 July 1, 1995 June 1, 1995 May 1, 1995 April 1, 1995 March 1, 1995

browse e-newsletters